Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.761287 3.340002 3.990197 4.771840 5.682836 6.707792 7.944820
2025-03-23 1.885927 2.598122 3.488181 4.669996 6.184182 8.044087 10.484391
2025-03-30 1.306882 2.023157 3.006293 4.427589 6.397912 8.996672 12.639807
2025-04-06 0.994524 1.706261 2.765853 4.411926 6.847354 10.249969 15.277553
2025-04-13 0.771241 1.455504 2.552655 4.370273 7.217364 11.397274 17.854969
2025-04-20 0.663294 1.358774 2.546386 4.622109 8.028948 13.234700 21.568067
2025-04-27 0.563988 1.250298 2.494557 4.780991 8.698682 14.906816 25.167689
2025-05-04 0.495691 1.181668 2.494823 5.018447 9.509953 16.856935 29.340432
2025-05-11 0.409091 1.053932 2.361278 4.993636 9.865028 18.094595 32.472447
2025-05-18 0.323393 0.904683 2.156215 4.800326 9.891670 18.776712 34.737070
2025-05-25 0.251781 0.766788 1.945510 4.558606 9.791516 19.218038 36.613003
2025-06-01 0.210048 0.690045 1.849365 4.529035 10.078664 20.348474 39.733748
2025-06-08 0.176808 0.627257 1.775436 4.541127 10.460071 21.702513 43.390892
2025-06-15 0.147631 0.566698 1.694723 4.526093 10.785198 22.980809 47.011186
2025-06-22 0.115097 0.484024 1.540791 4.319031 10.685962 23.445045 49.174325
2025-06-29 0.096660 0.440074 1.477603 4.314151 11.013375 24.754379 52.996457
2025-07-06 0.080295 0.396796 1.406323 4.277056 11.263124 25.925317 56.628929
2025-07-13 0.074752 0.392243 1.445417 4.525678 12.182378 28.513865 63.163318
2025-07-20 0.067236 0.376957 1.449256 4.682223 12.903491 30.744004 69.124395
2025-07-27 0.062306 0.370762 1.480118 4.915638 13.827727 33.459612 76.205219
2025-08-03 0.052575 0.338745 1.420891 4.891340 14.129108 34.874899 80.747698
2025-08-10 0.041587 0.294694 1.310066 4.701500 14.001085 35.351912 83.398200
2025-08-17 0.032032 0.251756 1.190670 4.464122 13.722734 35.471015 85.303750